The Challenge All Stars 3 Finale Win Equity

The preview for next week’s episode showed that we will see at least the starting portion of the Final, if not the whole thing. So before we get solid information about who will be the next two challenge champions, it’s time to look at the win equity of each competitor still in the running. I will be taking into account several factors including how well they have done in any previous finals (particularly biasing their more recent ones), how well they have competed physically this season, how many stars they have coming in, et cetera. Also for Derrick, Nehemiah, KellyAnne and Kailah, I will be factoring in that none of them are guaranteed to see the final as we have not gotten the conclusion to the final eliminations.

Starting off with Ladies first…

Nia Moore

15% chance to win

2 stars

Unlike what the show claimed in the first episode, Nia has never made a final prior to this season. That inexperience puts her at a significant disadvantage compared with the other remaining women. She has of course proved herself physically more than capable in eliminations and serviceable in the daily challenges. No matter what, she will be going up against tough competition as all three other women have won a final in the past. Nia also showed herself to be really rattled last episode after losing her support system, Jordan. In addition to the final being physical it takes an emotional toll and I don’t know if she has the same level of drive as everyone else after talking about quitting this past episode. Finally she has in the past shown her biggest weakness in The Challenge to be endurance and typically that is a major element in the final. If she can dig deep and potentially gets fortunate pairings in terms of partners it’s unlikely but possible Nia could pull off the upset.

Kailah Casillas-Bird

20% chance to win

2 stars (if she wins against KellyAnne)

Kailah has had a quite impressive showing this season, between making authority in addition to winning two dailies. She is fit and is the youngest of the people remaining. However, there are two reasons why I have her lower down in likelihood to win. First is that she still has to get through a pole wrestle elimination against KellyAnne in order to make it to the end, and I don’t think that she is the favorite to come out victorious. Secondly, even though she has competed in a final before, her previous performance in the Vendettas final was really uninspired. She only made it to part 2 by the fortune of Nicole Z going out with an injury and Kam being the only one who had to do an extra task. Kailah could maybe pull off an upset, but she has a tough road and would have to get lucky.

KellyAnne Judd

30% chance to win

2 stars (if she can beat Kailah)

KellyAnne is often cited as one of the best competitors to never win a challenge season and I agree with that evaluation. She is arguably the most fit of all of the ladies remaining and if it were not for a few factors she would be at least tied for the favorite to win. First of all, she still needs to win the final elimination over Kailah to get to the final and even though I think she is more likely to come out on top there is still a possibility she loses that. Additionally, KellyAnne will have at most 2 stars which the show has hyped up the importance of, and Jonna already has 4. Finally we have seen KellyAnne have absolute meltdowns this season when it comes to putting puzzles together, even though she redeemed that by winning a different puzzle in the Stacked daily challenge and doing well in the Flight Pattern puzzle. It is a possibility that she hits a wall again and loses valuable time in the final.

Jonna Mannion

35% chance to win

5 stars

Will we get a repeat Champion Jonna? It seems crazy to say when considering before All Stars Jonna would have never come close to the top women in the game but she has absolutely proved herself, between tying for first place among the women on All Stars 1, winning All Stars 2 and coming in to the final with arguably the best season winning 2 daily challenge, making 2 additional authorities and winning 2 eliminations. She had to scrap her way through this season and has done so after getting to the end of the past two seasons, mainly by using her stellar social game. She has some physical endurance roughly on par with KellyAnne (who she tied with in All Stars 1), she has the best puzzle ability of anyone remaining in the competition and has the most stars out of anybody. Jonna is my favorite to win for the women.

Moving over to the Men…

Derrick Kosinski

15 % chance to win

5 stars (if he wins over Nehemiah)

Derrick’s stock has significantly dropped from where it once was when he was widely considered among the best to ever compete on The Challenge. He had pretty poor performances in All Stars 1, finishing last in the final. In All Stars 2 he got knocked out early on. Derrick has had a pretty good bounce back season winning both an elimination over MJ, a daily challenge and making an additional authority. The big reason that I have him so low is that I feel like he needs to run his best final and have all of his opponents falter in order to win. And on top of that he still needs to beat Nehemiah to even get that opportunity. With the glimpse of the elimination we got at the end the past episode, it looked to me like Derrick had underrated Nehemiah as an opponent and considering Nehemiah’s intensity and their rivalry over the course of the All Stars seasons my guess is Derrick doesn’t even make it to the final.

Mark Long

17.5% chance to win

4 stars

“The Godfather” has again proved that he is still a force to be reckoned with in this game and I think if he could pull this out it would be his best season to date. Mark truly makes fifty look good having won two daily challenges (with an additional authority), and two eliminations against impressive opponents. He is also coming into the final with an impressive 4 stars that I expect him to use very well strategically. I just don’t see Mark overcoming the other people still in this game who are also incredible competitors and are all significantly younger than him. He did well in the All Stars 1 final, but fifth place is still a far cry from first and considering the stiffer competition I would be elated but shocked to see him take home the win.

Nehemiah Clark

20% chance to win

5 stars (if he can beat Derrick)

Nehemiah has had a quiet season, being able to coast on his social game which got him this far but now he has to beat Derrick in order to actually get all the way to the final. I do think Nehemiah looks like he is in the lead based off of what we saw at the end of last episode but Derrick has an incredible amount of fight. Assuming that he is able to get past the final elimination, I think Nehemiah has a good chance to win. He is coming off a really strong finish in All Stars 2, which saw him (and Melinda) finish the most difficult part of the final in first place. I think he has a good shot to take the win but he is going to be facing a more difficult level of competition. It is not that I don’t think Nehemiah can win, but I believe the two people above him are just slightly more likely winners and don’t need to get through an elimination beforehand.

Brad Fiorenza

22.5% chance to win

1 star

Brad has been an absolute force throughout this season, winning three daily challenges (and making an additional authority) as well as playing a fantastic social game and avoiding going into an elimination all season. However, with that success has also come no opportunity to gain more stars and potentially a bigger advantage over the competition. Brad has also not run a final in a decent amount of time, unlike all of the other men so there is a chance he may not be as ready as the others. Another potential pitfall he will have to avoid is making boneheaded costly mistakes, which Brad has a history of doing (like when he screwed up the final daily of All Stars 2). Brad is a great competitor and still poses a strong threat to become a two time champion if the stars don’t prove to be as big of an advantage as some people think they might be.

Wes Bergmann

25% chance to win

2 stars

When it comes down to things Wes has played a pretty outstanding political game this season. He was able to win an elimination against Yes, one of his biggest threats in the game, and able to get Jordan and Darrell (his other biggest threats) out of the game without him needing to take the shot himself. Wes has been shown physically preparing for the final all season, running on the treadmill. Thinking back to the last time he was in a final in War of the Worlds, he finished third against elite competitors in the most difficult final to date. Wes does not have to go up against anyone who is truly one of the greatest of all time in this final. I think he does not have any true flaws as a finals competitor where each of his remaining opponents do, leaving Wes as the man I have most likely to win.