The Challenge Spies, Lies & Allies Win Equity headed into the Finale
After a season that has felt liked it has gone on for years the final is here and that means it is time to look at what each players win equity is heading into the final episode.
As per usual we do not know everything for sure about the format going into the second portion of the final. We know that for now they will be working back in cells with the Purple Cell consisting CT, Devin, Tori & Emy and the Orange Cell consisting of Kyle, Nelson, Kaycee & Nany. From what I have gathered according to the preview all of the members of the cell that wins will make it to the last leg and the losing team will need to face each other to get to join them. The preview did show a clip of Orange passing Purple but I still doubt they will finish ahead of them in the end since I see their team struggling mightily in any puzzle checkpoint. That would set up two of the more interesting potential eliminations with the couple of Nany and Kaycee facing each other and the most even possible match up for the men Kyle verses Nelson. Otherwise we would get CT against Devin which seems like it would be very bad for Devin and Emy against Tori which is a pretty interesting elimination match up. There is definitely a possibility that we are being misled though and and they will be finishing the season out as cells.
Odds if the cells stay together until the end
Purple Cell 65% win equity
If they are playing out the rest of the final in these cells the contestants of the Purple cell are the clear front runners. CT is the only former champion and if anything he is coming off his most impressive finals performance in Double Agents, Tori had strong finals performances in both XXX: Dirty 30 & War of the Worlds 2, Emy has been the “rookie of the season” and Devin has come a long way from being the layup team with Cheyenne on Rivals III. The way I could see them lose is if somebody gasses out slowing their team down. It is possible Emy is not ready for the intensity of a final but Devin is more likely team member to be the weak link as seen during the Million Dollar Heist daily where he came close to costing his team the victory.
The Orange Cell 35% win equity
The Orange Cell is a pretty strong team and physically they could probably keep up. The problem is that normally finals have puzzles and other mental tasks and I do not know know who they rely on for that. Individually, Kaycee has been one of the top performing women for three straight seasons. She has did pretty well during the Total Madness final & was in the running before getting injured on Double Agents. As an individual Nelson was in the lead for a portion of this final and in his only other final lost by minutes to CT on Invasion of the Champions. The Orange Cell’s competitor with the most success in finals is Kyle who finished second on Total Madness and third on Vendettas. The biggest liability is likely Nany who struggled to keep up on Double Agents however in her other final she kept up pretty well with Laurel who is one of the best ever. The biggest reason that they are the underdogs for me is my concern over them timing out in every puzzle.
Odds if they do go back to individuals
This is assuming both a male and female champion and that the losing cell automatically goes against each other in an elimination with the winners moving on.
1 previous final (Rivals III third place)
10% chance to win
When it comes down to it to win Devin either needs to beat CT in an elimination or in the individual portion of the final. Both are doubtful particularly since Devin does not have the advantage he usually has over others over CT who is also great at puzzles. Even if he does manage to upset CT in an elimination or beat him in the final Devin still needs to defeat Nelson and Kyle too who are strong competitors in their own rights.
2 previous finals (Vendettas third place & Total Madness second place)
20% chance to win
Kyle has had a good amount of success in his two previous finals but has still been unable to take home the big prize. In past finals he has done well by keeping a consistent steady pace the whole way. That is a good strategy to finish in the top half but without really pushing I do not think that is the winning strategy. He is likely to have to go against Nelson in an elimination which is certainly not an easy task but there are definitely somebody eliminations that I can see Kyle winning. However he then has to beat CT who seems to be just getting better with age and has the advantage over Kyle in check points because Kyle is not strong at things like math or puzzles. If CT does miraculously get taken out or he gasses out like he did on Battle of the Exes (I severely doubt that) Kyle could potentially sneak in there.
1 previous final (Invasion of the Champions second place)
25% chance to win
I think that Nelson is most likely to have to against Kyle in an elimination which is a quite even matchup. Nelson might statistically have had much more success in eliminations but Kyle does have a significant height advantage on Nelson. If their team does manage to win or he is able to eliminate Kyle, Nelson has run a strong first half of the final but still has to potentially beat CT. But Nelson’s bests chance to win were if CT were to go out. Then I would have Nelson as a presumptive slight favorite over Kyle since Nelson has had a stronger start in the first part of this final but it would be close between the two of them.
Chris “CT” Tamburello
9 previous finals (4 wins Rivals II, Invasion of the Champions, War of the Worlds 2 & Double Agents, Second place The Inferno, The Inferno II, The Gauntlet III, Battle of the Exes, Third place XXX: Dirty 30)
45% chance to win
CT is the only previous challenge champion left in the game and he has been seemingly gotten better with age. CT is probably physically the strongest, has the most endurance and is arguably the best at puzzles and the other check point tasks. I think his cell is more likely to not face an elimination during the final but if they do CT is an overwhelming favorite against Devin in almost every elimination apart from maybe puzzles which is a strength for them both. One of the other men would have to put up an impressive performance to beat him.
2 previous finals (Second place Free Agents & Third place Double Agents)
5% chance to win
Nany is on the Orange Cell which I think means she is more likely to lose the team portion and have her end up going head to head against her girlfriend Kaycee. It would be a great moment but Kaycee is better at pretty much everything so I would be amazed if Nany upset her and even then she has two other strong women Tori & Emy to beat in the rest of the final. I feel like her only path to victory would be something like winning the team portion, Emy beats Tori in an elimination, Emy gasses out since she is a rookie and that Kaycee’s injuries slow her down.
0 previous finals (she’s a rookie)
20% chance to win
Emy has proved herself to absolutely be the “rookie of the season” by winning 4 eliminations. She has been taken under the wing of CT who has helped her train during the season and she is naturally a strong competitor. However there is a possibility that she will not be as ready as the veteran women and as a result fall behind in some of the checkpoints. I think Emy’s best shot to win is by taking out Tori in an elimination, one of Kaycee’s injuries slowing her down and Nany continuing to lag behind.
2 previous finals (Second place on Total Madness & Fourth place on Double Agents)
35% chance to win
Kaycee is an excellent competitor but there a few situational factors that have her as the woman that is the second most likely to win. First of all she is on the Orange Cell which I think will have her going into an elimination against Nany and even though I think she is the heavy favorite it is still a risk. Additionally Kaycee did not seem to be moving as well during the first part of the final, potentially due to her significant knee injury from last season or the broken toe she mentioned during The Challenge Aftermath. Even with these factors I can easily still see Kaycee pulling off the win particularly if one of Tori or Emy have to take each other out in an elimination.
2 Previous finals (Third place XXX:Dirty 30 & Purged in War of the Worlds 2)
40% chance to win
Tori seems like she is the best set up to win this season out of the women left. Off the bat she is one of the strongest competitors but she also has advantages over each other player. Nany has always been a good but unremarkable competitor with Tori outperforming her in almost every daily. Tori has the experience advantage over Emy and even though I think Tori and Kaycee are pretty equal competitors Kaycee is still recovering from injuries. If Tori is able to capitalize I think that gives her the best shot out of all the women to win.