The Challenge Total Madness Finale Preview:

I love The Challenge and even though I have not loved Total Madness as a season in particular, it has definitely had some stand out moments. The Final though is shaping up to be quite solid if not the best part of the season. As the producers choose to do sometimes we do not have all of the information now about how they will crown winners but assuming there will be one male winner and one female winner this season, here are my thoughts on the win equity for everyone still in the game. So as they say “Ladies First.”

Ladies Win Equity:

Kaycee 45% chance to win

Kaycee is beast! She has both done really well in all of the endurance based missions this season and is a former professional athlete who knows how to push herself in competition. With that in mind, I think that really speaks to her being able to get through a grueling final. Another advantage Kaycee has is her puzzle ability after seeing her do well with them on Big Brother. For these reasons I think Kaycee has a slight edge over Jenny but it’s just barely.

Jenny 40% chance to win

Jenny has proven that she is an elite athlete by succeeding in elimination rounds and in daily challenges most importantly in the endurance missions this season. Normally I would give a veteran an edge in a final, but in this case Jenny isn’t really a vet since it is her second season and she has not run a final. If she was more of a vet I would have considered her a slight favorite instead. My tie breaker is I am unsure of how Jenny may perform in a puzzle which leaves her behind Kaycee for me.

Melissa 8% chance to win

Melissa is great television and has proven to be a surprisingly good competitor. However, I would be shocked to see her compete at the same level as Jenny and Kaycee. I see her and Bayleigh in a similar tier but give Melissa a slight edge over Bayleigh since as a vet she therefore comes in with more experience and presumably more of an idea of what to expect in a final, particularly since she saw in person the difficulty of a final after after being brought back as a part of the Grenade twist on the Vendettas final.

Bayleigh 7% chance to win

Bayleigh is a strong competitor and in a different season I could easily see her have a good shot. However considering the fact is that Kaycee and Jenny are in a completely different league and potentially able to complete with the most athletic women ever on the challenge like Laurel, Emily, Evelyn, Bayleigh is a long shot. Could Bayleigh win a final eventually? Sure, but I’d be shocked if she got better than 3rd on Total Madness.

As for the men in this final I think it is a much closer race. I looked at each player and gave them positive and negative points for the most important parts in most finals. It’s close but this is my win equity for each male competitor going into the finals:

Men’s Win Equity:

Bananas 25% chance to win

Bananas is an icon of the challenge. In the past he has won a total of six challenge seasons including one individually those stats speak for themselves. Surprisingly Bananas hasn’t won a final in 4 years and this is not a runaway physically since he has definitely lost a step. However Banana’s is out of all the remaining men the one I would easily put my money on in a puzzle honestly when you look at the field if it’s a difficult puzzle Cory, Rogan, Kyle & Fessy might still be on a mountain in the Czech Republic.

Rogan 20% chance to win

Rogan is a bit of question mark still, he skated by purely on politics last season and he did go on to win that final. However in the past he did die running up the Rock of Gibraltar and was on a team that was stacked last season. Also the team final had a lot more carrying then Individual finals usually do and he got a huge advantage out of Paulie’s gas out on team US. He is the wild card but a win for Rogan could happen.

Fessy 20% chance to win

Fessy is one of the best rookies to come on the challenge. He is legitimately a NFL caliber talented athlete. He has killed this season physically and I could see him beast his way through this final. However he is he biggest threat going in to this final and could get grenades or other disadvantages thrown his way by other players. Fessy has also mightily struggled on Big Brother when it came to puzzles. Also Fessy is still a rookie so that always gives me hesitation to say someone is going to win.

Kyle 20% chance to win

Kyle is the dark horse for the men at the same time he has a number of positives and negatives. Kyle has been in a final and did fairly well in that final getting passed the first cut beating out strong competitors Leroy and Tony. Kyle did well in the endurance challenge this season where they moved the trash across the field to dumpsters getting to the second round as a part of a team with him and 2 women. As for the more recent individual endurance challenge he was the target and it is hard to even know how well he did. The bad is that he is conventionally seen as the weakest and seemingly abysmal at puzzles.

Cory 15% chance to win

Cory has proven to be way more popular over this season and it makes sense since he has grown up a lot since Cory is no longer body slamming people into driveways. He is a good athlete and has shown it a number of times however, Cory did horribly in the Invasion finals and lost the Bloodlines final with a strong partner to Cara and her cousin who though they were a good team I don’t think they compare to Fessy/Bananas/Rogan. Cory has also proven to be really terrible at puzzles (the guy tried counting an “A” as a triangle at one point) so that could lose him a final where the competition is as physically close as I think it is.

I hope you enjoyed my ramblings about the challenge and enjoy the finale this Wednesday.