Win Equity going into the final for The Challenge All Stars 2
We are at the end of yet another season of The Challenge. I have thoroughly enjoyed this season so far and think that this is shaping up to be a relatively even final between at least 3 of the 4 teams. I had Brad & Jodi in my head as the likely favorites since they were the most dominant team and with all of the discussion about Janelle’s injured back potentially hampering the other outstanding competitor Darrell I think that it opens the door to be a very interesting ending. So here we go with how likely I find each of the remaining teams chances to win the final.
If you would like to see my thoughts heading into previous finals you can find those here:
Teck & Ayanna
1% Chance to Win
For all of the incredible entertainment that both Teck & Ayanna have provided throughout this season they are still the clear underdogs going into this final. Ayanna has never been in a final and Teck was only in a team final on Challenge 2000 which was in practice a completely different beast. Ayanna is a very strong competitor in eliminations, winning 2 in pretty dominant fashion. But individually and as a team they have struggled in the dailies. They struggled on the minifinal as well, and with the level of competition they are up against even if they put together a great run I don’t see them besting all three other teams. But anything can happen, so I will give them that 1%.
Darrell & Janelle
25% Chance to Win
Darrell is one of the all time greats, and he just finished a close second place to Yes on the first All Stars. Janelle did win a moderately difficult final and has been one of the more impressive women in the house this season (particularly with Jodi out of the running). Therefore they should be one of the top teams. Maybe I am just reading into the edit too much, but I really believe that Janelle’s back injury will slow them down. Players have overcome injuries in the past like Kaycee on this past season of Spies, Lies & Allies who won despite having a broken toe. With the amount of discussion that it got in this past episode, I think it will at least slow them down. Even so, they are still very strong competitors and I have been wrong plenty of other times.
Nehemiah & Melinda
35% Chance to Win
Nehemiah and Melinda have been by far one of the most consistent teams across this season regularly finishing in the top 2 or 3. Nehemiah has long been one of the more underrated competitors and Melinda is someone who was one of my biggest surprises since she has been extremely unremarkable in the past. With front runners Brad & Jodi being eliminated and Janelle running the final injured, this might just be their opportunity. In addition to doing well in the dailies this season, they are also by far the closest friends of any team. Teamwork can definitely be important in a final. I think they have a really good shot, but for a couple of reasons they end second most likely to win for me.
MJ & Jonna
39% Chance to Win
Jonna has gone from someone who was always primarily on the show for entertainment value to one of the better women competitors. MJ has always been a slightly above average competitor. Jonna’s impressive run in the All Stars 1 final (honestly she deserves to be a champion- I really think not having winners for each gender was bullshit) combined with her and MJ winning the minifinal this season has me thinking they are set up for success. They are the team I think is most likely to be our champions for All Stars.
