The Challenge Ride or Dies: Finals Win Equity

At the end of the most recent episode, TJ announced that the remaining four teams are headed to the final. According to the preview, it will be a brutal 100-hour marathon.

I have been sharing my thoughts and predictions about each contestant’s win equity going into the final since Total Madness. I will be taking into account the teams' past performances in finals as well as their performances this season, particularly focusing on how well they did in the more endurance-based daily challenges. Predictions for this final are particularly murky due to the fact that each duo has one very strong member and one who is not as strong. I do however think every team has at least a fighting chance to take home the win.

Here were my Past Win Equity Articles:

Total Madness, Double Agents, Spies, Lies & Allies, All Stars, All Stars 2, All Stars 3, and The Challenge USA.

Jordan & Aneesa 10% Chance to Win the Final

Aneesa and Jordan have had a very good season; they won one daily challenge and three eliminations and worked well together as a team. Aneesa is very good at puzzles, she’s physically strong and is strong in eating challenges, all of which are important factors when running a final. However, she is not a great runner which has always been her struggle in past finals, finishing ninth out of ten in the All-Stars final and last place in the Duel II final. On the other hand, running finals is a strength of Jordan’s as he has won 3 of the 4 seasons where he made it to the final. Even though Jordan is an amazing athlete and successfully motivated Aneesa in their Knot So Fast elimination win, I do not think he can carry their team to victory over the course of a 100-hour final against these other strong teams.

Olivia & Horacio 25% Chance to Win the Final

Experience is always a big advantage when it comes to competing in a final and Olivia & Horacio being a pair of rookies have none of that experience. They have been one of the best teams this season, let alone the clear best rookies. Together they won three eliminations, with Horacio picking up an additional two victories on his own. They also had strong showings in several of the daily challenges. However, I am cautious about their chances of winning the final with how they fell apart at the end of the mini-final this season, Haul or Nothing. If they want to claim the upset they cannot afford that kind of blow up. I think there is definitely a chance Olivia & Horacio are able to overcome the odds and become rookie champions, but they are not the favorites.

Bananas & Nany 30% Chance to Win

Bananas & Nany are one of the pairs who best exemplify the ride or dies theme out of the entire cast. The two of them have been close friends and allies for nearly a decade. Together they have had a pretty successful season, winning two daily challenges and the final elimination over Faysal & Moriah. Bananas is, of course, one of the best and most successful to ever be on the show, with seven wins to his name. Historically Nany has always been a solid competitor but has never been able to finish. She struggled in both of her most recent finals. Nany lost the team portion of the Spies, Lies & Allies final which resulted in her going in and losing an elimination against her girlfriend Kaycee and she struggled in the Double Agents final coming in third even though she had a strong partner in Leroy.

Narratively, this seems like Nany’s season to win. She came in after losing her mom unexpectedly, she is paired with her longtime good friend, she won an individual elimination and she has overcome by getting through the end game without the security of having Kaycee by her side. This might finally be Nany’s time to get a win since each of the other teams in the final are flawed and she has Bananas as a partner who she has good teamwork with, but at this point I have lost my faith in Nany’s ability to win and they are not my favorites to win.

Tori & Devin 35% Chance to Win

Tori & Devin have managed to stay under the radar and out of danger for most of the season by using their social game and cutting deals to stay. They had their two highlight moments bookending this season, winning the first elimination over Kailah & Sam and then winning the last daily which gave them the power going into the final. They have been friends since their Are You the One? days and work well together as a team which bodes well going into the final. Tori physically is a powerhouse and the clear top woman going remaining. Paired with Kyle, she finished just seconds behind CT & Kaycee in last season’s final and had two other strong final performances in War of the Worlds II and Dirty 30. Devin, on the other hand, is the weakest man remaining but he has had some solid endurance in the past, for example when he took second place in the Haul or Nothing mini-final. He was also part of the winning team on day one of the Spies, Lies & Allies final and did well in the Vendettas opening purge. Devin is also very good at puzzles which are always an element of the final. What it comes down to is that I think Devin will slow their team down less than Nany or Aneesa will slow down theirs. Because of that, I think that Tori & Devin are the most likely team to take home the win.

To recap I think Tori & Devin are the most likely to win with 35% of win equity, followed by Bananas & Nany with 30%, Rookies Olivia & Horacio with 25%, and Jordan & Aneesa with 10%.