The Challenge World Championship Final Win Equity

Henry L DiMaria
6 min readMay 17, 2023

I have been sharing my thoughts and predictions about each contestant’s win equity going into the final since ‘Total Madness’. We are at the time again since TJ announced that the remaining four teams are headed right into the final. As expected with a season named ‘The Challenge World Championship’, the final has some stiff competition with seven of the eight remaining players being former champions. They have all had different paths to get here and now everything will come to a head in a final.

I will be taking into account the teams’ past performances in finals as well as their performances this season particularly focusing on how well they did in the more endurance-based daily challenges. I think there are definitely teams that have a significant edge, but each team has at least a fighting chance to come out on top.

Here were my Past Win Equity Articles:

Total Madness, Double Agents, Spies, Lies & Allies, Ride or Dies, All Stars, All Stars 2, All Stars 3, and The Challenge USA.

Sarah Lacina & Theo Campbell have a 12.5% chance to win.

For me, it is very obvious that the least likely team to win this final is Sarah and Theo. In the past, Theo was a former world-class sprinter and finished second in the War of the Worlds final, which is widely regarded as the most difficult final the challenge is ever done. Sarah is a former Survivor winner who once ran seven marathons on the seven continents in seven days. That is such an absurd statement, I didn’t even think that was a feat people were trying to do.

Even though both of these competitors have accomplished these incredible things which demonstrate their endurance, they are who I have as least likely to win. Of the eight competitors remaining, Theo is the only competitor to have never won a season. Sarah only won ‘The Challenge USA’ final by default after she was in a distant last place and then all of the other women were disqualified or quit. As a pair they performed near the bottom in daily challenges when compared to the other teams still left, a couple of times barely avoiding last place. Their only win came when it was thrown to them in this past episode.

With the high level of competition remaining in the game and Sarah & Theo’s lack of success as a pair throughout the season, I would be quite surprised to see them win. They are the pair I think is least likely to win.

Tori Deal & Danny McCray have a 22.5% chance to win

Tori and Danny have had the most chaotic relationship as partners throughout this entire season. They regularly disagreed and their conflicting alliances caused them to throw their vote away several times. However, their team being split between the two big alliances in the house did benefit them by keeping them safe all the way through to the final without ever having to go into an elimination or win a daily challenge.

Tori is widely considered one of the strongest women and is coming off two straight impressive seasons. She won ‘Ride or Dies’ with Devin and came just seconds short on ‘Spies, Lies & Allies’. Danny is a former NFL player and he, of course, won the grueling ‘Challenge USA’’ final. So going by their histories, it would not be a major shock for them to finish on top. However, there are three major reasons why they are not one of the top favorites. First of all, they failed to win any of the daily challenges this season which is not a good sign going into the final. Secondly, though they each won a season in the past neither of them was against this level of competition in those wins. Finally, I am concerned that their lack of team unity will affect their performance.

Troy Cullen & Kaycee Clark have a 30% chance to win

Although Troy and Kaycee were not each other’s original partners, they have worked together remarkably in the latter half of the season. Ever since Kaycee burst onto The Challenge scene on ‘Total Madness’ she has shown herself to be one of the show’s elite female competitors. Troy had a dominant run on ‘The Challenge: Australia’ where he won 4 of the 9 daily challenges, an elimination, and smoked the final. Together, they have needed to battle their way through the end of the game winning an impressive 3 of the last four eliminations. Along the way they’ve shown themselves to be a well-rounded team who can pack a much larger punch than their small stature would suggest.

If this was just about who I wanted to win and who I am rooting for, I would easily push Kaycee and Troy up to the top spot. However, there are some small reasons I think they are not the favorites. They are only one-time champions and Jordan has a legitimate argument for being the best of all time. Also, they are going directly into this final bruised and battered after their ‘Hall Brawl’ win over Emily & Yes which could slow them down. Finally, although they have shown tremendous teamwork, Troy & Kaycee have been working together as a pair for the least amount of time out of all of the teams so that puts them at a slight disadvantage.

Jordan Wisely & Kaz Crossley have a 35% chance to win

Over the course of this season and during her run on ‘The Challenge: UK’, Kaz has proven herself to be a very strong competitor. Physically, she looks built for a final where endurance and running are at their most important. Jordan has an argument for being the best competitor The Challenge has ever seen. He has won three finals, (which is two more than anybody else remaining in the game), and has an extensive highlight reel beyond that. For those reasons, it felt undeniable to me that they are the favorites to win this final.

However, they are not without fault, as their communication this season has not been stellar. Jordan’s bossiness and constant need to be right has at times left Kaz feeling unsupported. This was also an issue in the recent ‘Ride or Dies’ final Jordan, ran paired with Aneesa, and they finished third. Jordan & Kaz have also not been a dominant force in the daily challenges. In addition, Kaz has only ever run one final in the past and showed in the ‘Tunnel Time’ daily challenge. At times, she can get flustered which could cost their team going up against strong competition. I do think when push comes to shove they will be able to overcome their issues and have the best shot of finishing as The Challenge World Champions.



Henry L DiMaria

I blog primarily about The Challenge but occasionally stretch into other reality TV @HenryLDiMaria