The Challenge USA 2 Final Win Equity

I have been sharing my thoughts and predictions about each contestant’s win equity going into the final since ‘Total Madness’. We are at that time once again, since TJ announced that the remaining competitors have made it to the final. Unlike the previous USA season, this final is chock full of competitors with previous finals experience. They have all had different paths to get here and now everything will come to a head in this season’s finale.

To determine win equity, I will be taking into account the player’s past performances in finals as well as their performances this season; particularly focusing on how well they did in the more endurance-based daily challenges. Several competitors have a significant edge, but I believe each team has at least a fighting chance to come out on top.

Here are my Past Win Equity Articles:

Total Madness, Double Agents, Spies, Lies & Allies, Ride or Dies, All Stars, All Stars 2, All Stars 3, The Challenge USA, and The Challenge World Championship.

The Women:

Chanelle has a 10% chance to win

Being a rookie in a Challenge final is always an uphill battle and Chanelle is the lone female rookie remaining. On top of that she has had the least impressive performance this season of all the women in this final. Chanelle was unimpressive in the daily challenges and had just one elimination win. Another factor that makes me lower her chances in a final is puzzles, which she admitted this past episode was not her strong suit. With all that in mind, she is the woman I think is least likely to win.

Desi has a 25% chance to win

Desi got screwed in The Challenge USA final when her partner, Enzo, quit five seconds in which disqualified Desi and cost her the opportunity to run the final. Going into that final, I was high on her chances to win and I still think she has a strong case this season, but this time around she is against stiffer competition. Desi has certainly continued to prove herself as a legitimate Challenge competitor, being one of the top women in the team portion, winning an elimination over Amanda and the Brain Squeeze mini-final. Desi is capable of winning the final, she just has not performed as well as Michaela or Tori this season and therefore I have her a bit less likely. However, I would be delighted to see her get redemption by winning this season after competing in The Challenge USA 1.

Michaela has a 30% chance to win

Michaela was the first boot her last time out on Spies, Lies, and Allies due to getting a weak partner. On The Challenge USA 2 however, she has had a fantastic season, particularly when it came to her daily challenge performances. She won three of the individual dailies, which was the most of anyone this season. She also won an elimination over Tiffany. She has proven herself to be a very strong competitor and I think should be seen as one of the favorites going into this final.

Tori has a 35% chance to win

It is crazy to me that the “Secret Garden” alliance had power so frequently in the latter stages of this game and they still let Tori get to the final unscathed. She came in as one of the few veteran women on the season. She is the only remaining competitor who has run a final let alone the fact, that Tori is a Challenge Champion. She has been one of the top females all season and with her experience, Tori is the clear favorite for the women.

The Men:

Cory has a 15% chance to win

Cory is certainly one of the most popular contestants and he is generally a strong competitor. He was able to mostly skate by on his veteran status and social relationships, though he did win a tough daily. However, finals have been a weaker part of the show for him. Historically, Cory jumps out to a strong start before fading in the second half usually with his recurring ACL injury causing him trouble. Cory is also weak at puzzles which are almost always a portion of finals. If Cory wants to finally get a Challenge victory he needs to take out his biggest threats before the final, but this time around he has gotten here against a stacked field. Considering his competition and his history of finals performances, I have Cory as the least likely to be the winner for the men.

Chris has a 20% chance to win

As I mentioned with Chanelle in the women’s section, the lack of experience as a rookie going into a final is usually a significant hurdle. Chris has had a phenomenal season with his four elimination wins and wins in the final two daily challenges. He is up against three other men who have a significant leg up on him with their prior experience running finals. I certainly would not count Chris out; people like Turbo and Amber have won their rookie season. But if Chris does upset three strong veterans it would certainly be an impressive feat.

Faysal has a 30% chance to win

Faysal certainly gets flack from the Challenge fandom about his lack of results paired with his overinflated ego. That being said he is a top-tier competitor and a huge threat to win this final. On this season he won two daily challenges and the elimination over Josh. Faysal has, at times, shown good endurance for example winning the mini-final with Moriah on Double Agents. Conversely, he gassed out in the Total Madness final and was seen struggling in the Brain Squeeze daily challenge this season. An underrated positive he has going into the final is that Faysal is pretty good at puzzles, having won puzzle dailies in the past. Faysal is hungry to become a challenge champion and I think there is a good chance this is his time.

Bananas has a 35% chance to win

As I explained about the women letting Tori get to this final, it is crazy to me that Johnny Bananas made this final and was targeted so infrequently. He is the most decorated competitor in Challenge history and has been talked about by several of the other men in the house as if he were over the hill. Bananas came in second in a tough Ride or Dies final earlier this year and won Total Madness defeating both Cory and Faysal just three years ago. He is still a very strong competitor which he demonstrated by winning an individual daily and an elimination this season. Bananas has the most experience having run eleven finals throughout his Challenge career and is the only former champion of the men. With all of that in mind, Bananas is the clear favorite to take home yet another win.